Nintendo Switch only SOLD 18M to date TO CONSUMER

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#102 Edited by Techhog89 (3093 posts) -
@ulttruz7 said:

This is going to be the Wii all over again, explodes in sales for the first 2-3 years then dies off, and people actually think its going to pass the Xbox One.

I only have a Switch for Metroid, Fire Emblem and Bayonetta, would play more Splatoon 2 if the game wasn't dead online.

Other than that its a dust collector.

Because it will. See you in 2-2.5 years.

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#103 Posted by Blackhairedhero (2352 posts) -

The Switch wont flop and it wont beat the PS4 either. I predict about 60 million sales in its lifetime which will be good enough to keep the company healthy along with the game sales.

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#104 Posted by LuxuryHeart (982 posts) -
@blackhairedhero said:

The Switch wont flop and it wont beat the PS4 either. I predict about 60 million sales in its lifetime which will be good enough to keep the company healthy along with the game sales.

I predict 75+ million after it's all said and done. This will continue selling when it gets the big hits and a price cut.

Right now they have yet to drop, Pokemon Gen 8, Animal Crossing, Smash, Pokemon Let's Go, 2D Mario, another Zelda, Another Mario Kart, more third party, etc. Plus when it gets a price cut of $50 for the Holidays (probably Holiday 2019 or 2020), then it'll sell like hotcakes.

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#105 Edited by KungfuKitten (25971 posts) -

@Bread_or_Decide said:
@stereointegrity said:

lack of games is hurting this damn good machine

This has to be the fakest complaint about the switch.

I'm going broke keeping up with all the releases.

You're both right. Mario and Zelda were both potential games of the generation that nobody could ignore. They had to be talked about and experienced. We haven't had something like that in 2018. Smash may be one of those games.

But if you look at what's actually there to play on the Switch eshop then there is quite a lot to play. There hasn't really been a drought the way that it probably felt to anyone who doesn't look at their Switch often, it just didn't get the big bangs that command the public's attention.

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#106 Posted by Techhog89 (3093 posts) -
@blackhairedhero said:

The Switch wont flop and it wont beat the PS4 either. I predict about 60 million sales in its lifetime which will be good enough to keep the company healthy along with the game sales.

It'll do way more than 60 million at its current pace. If you want a conservative estimate, go with 80 million with 6 years on the market before the release of a successor.

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#107 Posted by sakaiXx (4201 posts) -

@KungfuKitten said:

You're both right. Mario and Zelda were both potential games of the generation that nobody could ignore. They had to be talked about and experienced. We haven't had something like that in 2018. Smash may be one of those games.

But if you look at what's actually there to play on the Switch eshop then there is quite a lot to play. There hasn't really been a drought the way that it probably felt to anyone who doesn't look at their Switch often, it just didn't get the big bangs that command the public's attention.

Don't be selective, God of War and Red Dead Redemption 2 deserves all praise it could get. But Nintendo fans do have this weird elitist behavior so I understand.

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#108 Posted by emgesp (7620 posts) -
@techhog89 said:
@emgesp said:
@techhog89 said:

@emgesp: It will, and your excuse will be, "how was I supposed to predict that it would get a revision and a price cut?!"

If you're sticking to your guns still, you're a complete and utter fool.

Nintendo will announce sales at 25 million or even 30 million by the end of the year. You can quote me on that.

Switch will not exceed 45 million units sold in less than 18 months. You'd be a fool to believe that.

I'll quote you on this, and you can quote me on that. Trust me, it's not even a high bar at this point considering everything happening next year. Really, it should be at around 55 million shipped by April 2020, which would mean over 50 million sold to customers in all likelihood. 45 million is a conservative estimate in case Smash, the revision, Animal Crossing, and Pokemon Gen 8 somehow underperform and Nintendo refuses to cut the price. Why don't you give your own estimate btw?

It will be under 46 million in less than 18 months.

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#109 Edited by Techhog89 (3093 posts) -

@emgesp: I thought 45 million was your maximum lifetime prediction. At least you're relenting a little bit. I was expecting you to say 30-35 million.

Anyway, I'm sure that right now you think that I'm a crazy fanboy, but we'll see. I'm confident that my estimates are reasonable, and that next year will be an explosive one for Switch. BTW, is that sell-in/shipped or sell-through/sold to customers? It'll be higher than that either way, but I want to be clear here. If it's sell-through, can you also give a sell-in number in case Nintendo doesn't give a sell-through figure? Since you're expecting a drop-off, they might be too embarrassed to give a figure if you're right. Also, what's your new lifetime estimate?

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#110 Edited by emgesp (7620 posts) -
@techhog89 said:

@emgesp: I thought 45 million was your maximum lifetime prediction. At least you're relenting a little bit. I was expecting you to say 30-35 million.

Anyway, I'm sure that right now you think that I'm a crazy fanboy, but we'll see. I'm confident that my estimates are reasonable, and that next year will be an explosive one for Switch. BTW, is that sell-in/shipped or sell-through/sold to customers? It'll be higher than that either way, but I want to be clear here. If it's sell-through, can you also give a sell-in number in case Nintendo doesn't give a sell-through figure? Since you're expecting a drop-off, they might be too embarrassed to give a figure if you're right. Also, what's your new lifetime estimate?

You asked me what I think sales will be in less than 18 months not LTD sales. I've always said I wouldn't be surprised if they blow past 45 million lifetime sales and will give them props if/when they do.

To clarify I think in less than 18 months less than 46 million units will be sold to customers. I don't care about shipped numbers.

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#111 Posted by DocSanchez (4920 posts) -

Already broken promises on third party and droughts, it's no wonder one game has almost matched the worldwide total sales in the two weeks it has been out. People want more.

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#112 Edited by Techhog89 (3093 posts) -
@emgesp said:
@techhog89 said:

@emgesp: I thought 45 million was your maximum lifetime prediction. At least you're relenting a little bit. I was expecting you to say 30-35 million.

Anyway, I'm sure that right now you think that I'm a crazy fanboy, but we'll see. I'm confident that my estimates are reasonable, and that next year will be an explosive one for Switch. BTW, is that sell-in/shipped or sell-through/sold to customers? It'll be higher than that either way, but I want to be clear here. If it's sell-through, can you also give a sell-in number in case Nintendo doesn't give a sell-through figure? Since you're expecting a drop-off, they might be too embarrassed to give a figure if you're right. Also, what's your new lifetime estimate?

You asked me what I think sales will be in less than 18 months not LTD sales. I've always said I wouldn't be surprised if they blow past 45 million lifetime sales and will give them props if/when they do.

To clarify I think in less than 18 months less than 46 million units will be sold to customers. I don't care about shipped numbers.

So basically you gave a cop-out answer. And no, you haven't always said that. In fact, you were saying 35 million tops initially.

The main reason to talk about shipped numbers is that we don't get sell-through numbers consistently. Even Sony only does it semi-consistently with PS4. People exaggerate how large the gap is, though. If Switch is around 55 million shipped by March 2020 I'm not gonna accept you trying to deny that it's over 45 million sold-through, for example.

Either way, based on the 2019 line-up and the revision rumor, I'd say that anything less than 45 million by then would mean that Switch is in a swift deathspiral and was a fad all along. ~25-30 million over the next 18 months should be a sure thing.

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#113 Edited by bigfootpart2 (1136 posts) -

It has a mediocre Zelda game and a mediocre Mario game. And the Zelda game actually runs and plays better in emulation on PC. There are no worthwhile looking upcoming games. Just kiddy stuff, weird Japanese stuff, and ports.

Also there's the fact that iPhones and Android phones have rendered traditional handhelds obsolete, especially for the kinds of casual and kiddy games that were big on the Wii. Your average iPhone has more powerful hardware than the Switch and everyone has one in their pocket.

So yeah, no surprise that the sales have slowed down and aren't as great as anticipated.

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#114 Edited by emgesp (7620 posts) -
@techhog89 said:
@emgesp said:
@techhog89 said:

@emgesp: I thought 45 million was your maximum lifetime prediction. At least you're relenting a little bit. I was expecting you to say 30-35 million.

Anyway, I'm sure that right now you think that I'm a crazy fanboy, but we'll see. I'm confident that my estimates are reasonable, and that next year will be an explosive one for Switch. BTW, is that sell-in/shipped or sell-through/sold to customers? It'll be higher than that either way, but I want to be clear here. If it's sell-through, can you also give a sell-in number in case Nintendo doesn't give a sell-through figure? Since you're expecting a drop-off, they might be too embarrassed to give a figure if you're right. Also, what's your new lifetime estimate?

You asked me what I think sales will be in less than 18 months not LTD sales. I've always said I wouldn't be surprised if they blow past 45 million lifetime sales and will give them props if/when they do.

To clarify I think in less than 18 months less than 46 million units will be sold to customers. I don't care about shipped numbers.

So basically you gave a cop-out answer. And no, you haven't always said that. In fact, you were saying 35 million tops initially.

The main reason to talk about shipped numbers is that we don't get sell-through numbers consistently. Even Sony only does it semi-consistently with PS4. People exaggerate how large the gap is, though. If Switch is around 55 million shipped by March 2020 I'm not gonna accept you trying to deny that it's over 45 million sold-through, for example.

Either way, based on the 2019 line-up and the revision rumor, I'd say that anything less than 45 million by then would mean that Switch is in a swift deathspiral and was a fad all along. ~25-30 million over the next 18 months should be a sure thing.

Shipped numbers is pointless as far as I'm concerned. It will be less than 45 million sold to consumers within 18 months. The Switch is not PS4 levels of success. I'm pretty sure when we first started discussing Switch's success you thought Switch would sell even better than it currently has.

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#115 Edited by Techhog89 (3093 posts) -
@emgesp said:
@techhog89 said:
@emgesp said:
@techhog89 said:

@emgesp: I thought 45 million was your maximum lifetime prediction. At least you're relenting a little bit. I was expecting you to say 30-35 million.

Anyway, I'm sure that right now you think that I'm a crazy fanboy, but we'll see. I'm confident that my estimates are reasonable, and that next year will be an explosive one for Switch. BTW, is that sell-in/shipped or sell-through/sold to customers? It'll be higher than that either way, but I want to be clear here. If it's sell-through, can you also give a sell-in number in case Nintendo doesn't give a sell-through figure? Since you're expecting a drop-off, they might be too embarrassed to give a figure if you're right. Also, what's your new lifetime estimate?

You asked me what I think sales will be in less than 18 months not LTD sales. I've always said I wouldn't be surprised if they blow past 45 million lifetime sales and will give them props if/when they do.

To clarify I think in less than 18 months less than 46 million units will be sold to customers. I don't care about shipped numbers.

So basically you gave a cop-out answer. And no, you haven't always said that. In fact, you were saying 35 million tops initially.

The main reason to talk about shipped numbers is that we don't get sell-through numbers consistently. Even Sony only does it semi-consistently with PS4. People exaggerate how large the gap is, though. If Switch is around 55 million shipped by March 2020 I'm not gonna accept you trying to deny that it's over 45 million sold-through, for example.

Either way, based on the 2019 line-up and the revision rumor, I'd say that anything less than 45 million by then would mean that Switch is in a swift deathspiral and was a fad all along. ~25-30 million over the next 18 months should be a sure thing.

Shipped numbers is pointless as far as I'm concerned. It will be less than 45 million sold to consumers within 18 months. The Switch is not PS4 levels of success. I'm pretty sure when we first started discussing Switch's success you thought Switch would sell even better than it currently has.

It's about in-line with my expectations for this year based on the lineup. Overall I don't expect it to match PS4 because it won't maintain itself as long, but I do expect it to blow away 3DS and for Switch's best year to be higher than PS4's best year. I have a better understanding of the sales patterns of each console than you do, which is why I know that if Switch sold ~20 million in its first 19 months then the next 18 should be well over that for obvious reasons. You're of course under the impression that its first year is its peak and that it's downhill from here, but trust me, both this year and 2019 will beat 2017 and 2019 will blow away your expectations. Nintendo will announce that they've sold over 30 million to customers before April 2019. Another 15 million in the year following that will be cake.

However, what I will say is that if Smash fails to push sales (I admit that I'm iffy on Pokemon Let's Go having a huge impact, though I'm sure that Gen 8 will be strong next year), then I'll admit that I've missed the mark and likely lower my expectations to ~40 million in ~3 years on the market (March 2020). My prediction hinges on Nintendo beating the second half of FY2017 by about 25% YoY.

BTW, my lifetime prediction (assuming 6 full years on the market before a new console) is 75 million minimum, 110 million max. For PS4 I'm expecting 115-130 million total.

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#116 Edited by emgesp (7620 posts) -
@techhog89 said:
@emgesp said:

Shipped numbers is pointless as far as I'm concerned. It will be less than 45 million sold to consumers within 18 months. The Switch is not PS4 levels of success. I'm pretty sure when we first started discussing Switch's success you thought Switch would sell even better than it currently has.

It's about in-line with my expectations for this year based on the lineup. Overall I don't expect it to match PS4 because it won't maintain itself as long, but I do expect it to blow away 3DS and for Switch's best year to be higher than PS4's best year. I have a better understanding of the sales patterns of each console than you do, which is why I know that if Switch sold ~20 million in its first 19 months then the next 18 should be well over that for obvious reasons. You're of course under the impression that its first year is its peak and that it's downhill from here, but trust me, both this year and 2019 will beat 2017 and 2019 will blow away your expectations. Nintendo will announce that they've sold over 30 million to customers before April 2019. Another 15 million in the year following that will be cake.

However, what I will say is that if Smash fails to push sales (I admit that I'm iffy on Pokemon Let's Go having a huge impact, though I'm sure that Gen 8 will be strong next year), then I'll admit that I've missed the mark and likely lower my expectations to ~40 million in ~3 years on the market (March 2020). My prediction hinges on Nintendo beating the second half of FY2017 by about 25% YoY.

BTW, my lifetime prediction (assuming 6 full years on the market before a new console) is 75 million minimum, 110 million max. For PS4 I'm expecting 115-130 million total.

Switch is not going to outsell the 3DS by a huge margin if it even does. 100 million units is 100% not happening. Switch is not the 2nd coming of Wii. It'll do decent enough, but I think you give the console's appeal too much credit.

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#117 Edited by Techhog89 (3093 posts) -

@emgesp: It doesn't need to be the second coming of the Wii to outsell it; it just needs to not fizzle out like Wii did. No other console has as strong a start as Wii, yet 2 consoles (soon to be 3 with PS4) and two handhelds have outsold it. As for comparing to 3DS, it is obliterating 3DS launch-aligned outside of Japan currently, at nearly double the price. Unless something completely kills the momentum, it's extremely unlikely that it'll struggle to beat 3DS.

I should also mention software sales, which are just unbelievable and will likely overtake 3DS by the end of 2020, if not sooner. I never predicted software sales to be even close to as great as they are, and they don't even count eShop-only titles!