Nintendo Switch only SOLD 18M to date TO CONSUMER

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Avatar image for DocSanchez
#51 Posted by DocSanchez (4920 posts) -

Oh dear, the PS4 killer looks more like a damp squib. And why wouldn't it? More broken promises.

It's worse when you consider this is a handheld. People argue that it is when you point out its graphical flaws, so it should be selling a lot lot more because Nintendo handhelds sell a great deal.

Avatar image for Archangel3371
#52 Posted by Archangel3371 (26443 posts) -

The Switch is selling very well, has a lot of excellent games for it, and I’m enjoying it very much myself.

Avatar image for Jacanuk
#53 Posted by Jacanuk (17020 posts) -

@Archangel3371 said:

The Switch is selling very well, has a lot of excellent games for it, and I’m enjoying it very much myself.

Wait what? Could you say that without falling down laughing?

But how do you define a lot? 5 games? 10? 20?

Avatar image for Archangel3371
#54 Posted by Archangel3371 (26443 posts) -

@Jacanuk: Yep. It has a lot of excellent games on it. There I said it again. Pretty easy thing to say. I already have 10 for it right now with probably another 10 currently available that I want to get with probably another 5 coming out in the next few months that I want and more after that.

Avatar image for sakaixx
#55 Posted by sakaiXx (4201 posts) -

@FireEmblem_Man said:

@sakaixx: did you even bother checking your own link, or you like self owning yourself?

I checked it duh, I dont like making false threads. First link is shipped number, second link is for the powerpoint, one of that powerpoint slides shows the information regarding how much switch sold to consumer.

Avatar image for sakaixx
#56 Posted by sakaiXx (4201 posts) -

@Bread_or_Decide said:
@stereointegrity said:

lack of games is hurting this damn good machine

This has to be the fakest complaint about the switch.

I'm going broke keeping up with all the releases.

Damn you buy a lot of ports.

Avatar image for Jacanuk
#57 Posted by Jacanuk (17020 posts) -

@Archangel3371 said:

@Jacanuk: Yep. It has a lot of excellent games on it. There I said it again. Pretty easy thing to say. I already have 10 for it right now with probably another 10 currently available that I want to get with probably another 5 coming out in the next few months that I want and more after that.

Hmm, not sure which games are great for it but ok.

Except for the Mario number 10000000 and Zelda 1000

Avatar image for Archangel3371
#58 Posted by Archangel3371 (26443 posts) -

@Jacanuk: Not my problem what games on it you think are great or not.

Avatar image for xantufrog
#59 Edited by xantufrog (10093 posts) -

@techhog89: "You're the one trying to downplay shipped numbers here, in fact"

That's the opposite of what my whole last paragraph said. If I misunderstood your point, I apologize, but don't pretend I'm devaluing shipped numbers. That's clearly the side the OP is taking and I am reaxting to.

Now, as for the OP, the math doesn't add up to a disaster - let's say 18 million is sold through in the US, Japan, and Europe. That's good already. And let's say 22.86 million are shipped (sold by Nintendo) - unless Canada, Aus, and all the other regions are a total disaster, it seems likely at least another 2 million are sold through. That figure would = >90% of Nintendo's Market is in the US, Japan, and Europe. It doesn't seem reasonable to me that it's more than that (presumably we can find past sales data to figure that out, I suppose)

Avatar image for techhog89
#60 Posted by Techhog89 (3093 posts) -
@xantufrog said:

@techhog89: "You're the one trying to downplay shipped numbers here, in fact"

That's the opposite of what my whole last paragraph said. If I misunderstood your point, I apologize, but don't pretend I'm devaluing shipped numbers. That's clearly the side the OP is taking and I am reaxting to.

Now, as for the OP, the math doesn't add up to a disaster - let's say 18 million is sold through in the US, Japan, and Europe. That's good already. And let's say 22.86 million are shipped (sold by Nintendo) - unless Canada, Aus, and all the other regions are a total disaster, it seems likely at least another 2 million are sold through. That figure would = 90% of Nintendo's Market is in the US, Japan, and Europe. It doesn't seem reasonable to me that it's more than that (presumably we can find past sales data to figure that out, I suppose)

90% should be about right, though it could still be more. Expensive game consoles don't exactly sell like hotcakes in third-world countries after all, Canada is only about 10% of US both population and sales-wise, Mexico is even smaller in terms of sales, and Switch did really poorly after launch in Australia. Another 2 million is about all we can reasonably expect. That said, Nintendo is also known for being weird about numbers so I wouldn't be shocked if that 18 million is rounded down.

Avatar image for sakaixx
#61 Posted by sakaiXx (4201 posts) -

@techhog89 said:
@xantufrog said:

@techhog89: "You're the one trying to downplay shipped numbers here, in fact"

That's the opposite of what my whole last paragraph said. If I misunderstood your point, I apologize, but don't pretend I'm devaluing shipped numbers. That's clearly the side the OP is taking and I am reaxting to.

Now, as for the OP, the math doesn't add up to a disaster - let's say 18 million is sold through in the US, Japan, and Europe. That's good already. And let's say 22.86 million are shipped (sold by Nintendo) - unless Canada, Aus, and all the other regions are a total disaster, it seems likely at least another 2 million are sold through. That figure would = 90% of Nintendo's Market is in the US, Japan, and Europe. It doesn't seem reasonable to me that it's more than that (presumably we can find past sales data to figure that out, I suppose)

90% should be about right, though it could still be more. Expensive game consoles don't exactly sell like hotcakes in third-world countries after all, Canada is only about 10% of US both population and sales-wise, Mexico is even smaller in terms of sales, and Switch did really poorly after launch in Australia. Another 2 million is about all we can reasonably expect. That said, Nintendo is also known for being weird about numbers so I wouldn't be shocked if that 18 million is rounded down.

I doubt Canada can do much. The game market is only $1.8b, and is shared with pc, console and mobile. Nintendo also have no official store in South East Asia and the Middle East. All games and console there is imported from either, JPN, US or, EU. But since no hard numbers I cannot refute.... Other than, lol only 5m shipped since march.

Avatar image for Gatygun
#62 Edited by Gatygun (1297 posts) -
@xantufrog said:
@techhog89 said:

Both numbers are correct. All numbers on that page are shipped. ~18 million is sold to customers in Japan, US, and Europe.

Based on what? The 18 million figure for attach rate lists 3 regions. I understand the argument that the remaining regions won't sell as much, but the math isn't crazy at all - in order to reach 22.86million sales with the rest of the regions, this means the entire rest of the world only needs to be 21% of Nintendo's Switch market. That doesn't seem unreasonable to me at all. In fact, it sounds just about exactly what I would guess - that the US, Japan, and Europe are ~80% of the Switch sales.

So I don't take "4.86 million in the rest of the world is impossible" as proof Nintendo didn't sell 22.86million.

I also don't understand why 22.86m "sales", if they do only mean "shipped", don't count. Like the X unsold-but-shipped Switches aren't going to sell and soon? Based on what? Nintendo sells them when they ship them, and if some % of those shipped units haven't sold THROUGH yet... what, the sales at retail are "only" 20 million then, or something?

Shipping doesn't mean nintendo sold them. Sometimes company's pay only what they sell and ship the other stuff back towards the company. This happens with massive warehouses as they dictate the rules.

A recent example was nvidia gpu's where they shipped back 100k + gpu's because they where not selling which took a large hit on Nvidia's financial sheet even while Nvidia shipped them out.

This also happens in big trade company's. They sell what they sell and ship everything back to the company they bought it from what they didn't sell for refunds basically. And they have to pay them back if they still wanna sell there stuff.

Avatar image for xantufrog
#63 Edited by xantufrog (10093 posts) -

@Gatygun: interesting; I didn't know that. Regardless, the whole thing is silly - and Nintendo clearly states 22.86 million SOLD. So someone bought them; be it a warehouse or a wealthy closet sheep

Avatar image for mojito1988
#64 Posted by mojito1988 (3293 posts) -

I have 50 games on the Switch, and 12 games on Ps4, So I would say the Switch is doing just fine.

Avatar image for sakaixx
#65 Edited by sakaiXx (4201 posts) -

I think more important matter that people fail to see is that Switch game attach rate is down compared to Wii U.

Switch 18m sold - 111.1m software - 6 game per console

Wii U 13m Sold - 102.5m Software - 8 game per console

Poor performance from the Nintendo Switch as usual

*I would have used 22m switch numbers but then the software attach rate is only 5 games per console and that is so sad. *cry nintendoom voices

Avatar image for Vatusus
#66 Posted by Vatusus (8947 posts) -

@KBFloYd said:
@Vatusus said:

The initial hype was blown out of proportion. I knew it. I kept saying the Switch sales would slow down after Zelda and Mario and the dry period arrived. Sheep kept saying I was wrong. I wasnt

Nintendo blew its load way too soon and now it barely has anything worthwhile to offer

lol what? it already outsold the game cube. the switch is selling great. its no wiiU which is what sales slowing down you were talking about.

you were wrong.

I never said it wouldnt outsold the Gamecube or the WiiU (wich isnt much of an achievement since they both were flops), I said the initial hype was being overblown out of proportion by sheep and the media alike. I quite remember several articles saying the Switch was on track of outselling the PS4 and the sheep posting these articles constantly on forums. It was overblown so yeah...

I was right

Avatar image for stereointegrity
#67 Posted by stereointegrity (12098 posts) -

@Bread_or_Decide: how is it a terrible taste when the games I play can be had off my other machines. Because I choose to get a third party game on another system has nothing to do with taste. The switch lacks content. I understand if your fan boy ways don't allow you to see that

Avatar image for Bread_or_Decide
#68 Posted by Bread_or_Decide (27398 posts) -

@stereointegrity said:

@Bread_or_Decide: how is it a terrible taste when the games I play can be had off my other machines. Because I choose to get a third party game on another system has nothing to do with taste. The switch lacks content. I understand if your fan boy ways don't allow you to see that

Lack content.

That's not even objectively true.

Avatar image for techhog89
#69 Posted by Techhog89 (3093 posts) -
@Vatusus said:
@KBFloYd said:
@Vatusus said:

The initial hype was blown out of proportion. I knew it. I kept saying the Switch sales would slow down after Zelda and Mario and the dry period arrived. Sheep kept saying I was wrong. I wasnt

Nintendo blew its load way too soon and now it barely has anything worthwhile to offer

lol what? it already outsold the game cube. the switch is selling great. its no wiiU which is what sales slowing down you were talking about.

you were wrong.

I never said it wouldnt outsold the Gamecube or the WiiU (wich isnt much of an achievement since they both were flops), I said the initial hype was being overblown out of proportion by sheep and the media alike. I quite remember several articles saying the Switch was on track of outselling the PS4 and the sheep posting these articles constantly on forums. It was overblown so yeah...

I was right

It's still tracking on-par with PS4 launch-aligned and is expected to have a better second full fiscal year than PS4 did.

Avatar image for kali-b1rd
#70 Posted by Kali-B1rd (1518 posts) -
@sakaixx said:

I think more important matter that people fail to see is that Switch game attach rate is down compared to Wii U.

Switch 18m sold - 111.1m software - 6 game per console

Wii U 13m Sold - 102.5m Software - 8 game per console

Poor performance from the Nintendo Switch as usual

*I would have used 22m switch numbers but then the software attach rate is only 5 games per console and that is so sad. *cry nintendoom voices

desperate are we?

Avatar image for scatteh316
#71 Posted by scatteh316 (9952 posts) -
@KBFloYd said:
@Vatusus said:

The initial hype was blown out of proportion. I knew it. I kept saying the Switch sales would slow down after Zelda and Mario and the dry period arrived. Sheep kept saying I was wrong. I wasnt

Nintendo blew its load way too soon and now it barely has anything worthwhile to offer

lol what? it already outsold the game cube. the switch is selling great. its no wiiU which is what sales slowing down you were talking about.

you were wrong.

People keep saying that as if the Gamecube was a massive success during it's day.

Avatar image for techhog89
#72 Posted by Techhog89 (3093 posts) -
@sakaixx said:

I think more important matter that people fail to see is that Switch game attach rate is down compared to Wii U.

Switch 18m sold - 111.1m software - 6 game per console

Wii U 13m Sold - 102.5m Software - 8 game per console

Poor performance from the Nintendo Switch as usual

*I would have used 22m switch numbers but then the software attach rate is only 5 games per console and that is so sad. *cry nintendoom voices

No, since it's shipped in both cases you should use the 22.86 million. Either way, call back in 2 years.

Avatar image for Vatusus
#73 Edited by Vatusus (8947 posts) -

@techhog89 said:
@Vatusus said:
@KBFloYd said:
@Vatusus said:

The initial hype was blown out of proportion. I knew it. I kept saying the Switch sales would slow down after Zelda and Mario and the dry period arrived. Sheep kept saying I was wrong. I wasnt

Nintendo blew its load way too soon and now it barely has anything worthwhile to offer

lol what? it already outsold the game cube. the switch is selling great. its no wiiU which is what sales slowing down you were talking about.

you were wrong.

I never said it wouldnt outsold the Gamecube or the WiiU (wich isnt much of an achievement since they both were flops), I said the initial hype was being overblown out of proportion by sheep and the media alike. I quite remember several articles saying the Switch was on track of outselling the PS4 and the sheep posting these articles constantly on forums. It was overblown so yeah...

I was right

It's still tracking on-par with PS4 launch-aligned and is expected to have a better second full fiscal year than PS4 did.

Link?

edit: I did some digging on my own. PS4 sold 18.5 million in its first year on the market

http://www.techradar.com/news/gaming/consoles/sony-ps4-sales-reach-18-5-million-after-a-year-and-change-beating-ps2-1279199

The switch is at 18 million in ONE YEAR and 9! MONTHS (closer to two years)

How is that "at the same pace" exactly?

Avatar image for personalbox4
#74 Posted by PersonalBox4 (14 posts) -

Wait, that's bad? I mean look at the Xbox one's sales from the fist year. Heck, you try to make something and get 18 million units in the first year of its sales.

Avatar image for techhog89
#75 Posted by Techhog89 (3093 posts) -
@Vatusus said:
@techhog89 said:
@Vatusus said:
@KBFloYd said:
@Vatusus said:

The initial hype was blown out of proportion. I knew it. I kept saying the Switch sales would slow down after Zelda and Mario and the dry period arrived. Sheep kept saying I was wrong. I wasnt

Nintendo blew its load way too soon and now it barely has anything worthwhile to offer

lol what? it already outsold the game cube. the switch is selling great. its no wiiU which is what sales slowing down you were talking about.

you were wrong.

I never said it wouldnt outsold the Gamecube or the WiiU (wich isnt much of an achievement since they both were flops), I said the initial hype was being overblown out of proportion by sheep and the media alike. I quite remember several articles saying the Switch was on track of outselling the PS4 and the sheep posting these articles constantly on forums. It was overblown so yeah...

I was right

It's still tracking on-par with PS4 launch-aligned and is expected to have a better second full fiscal year than PS4 did.

Link?

edit: I did some digging on my own. PS4 sold 18.5 million in its first year on the market

http://www.techradar.com/news/gaming/consoles/sony-ps4-sales-reach-18-5-million-after-a-year-and-change-beating-ps2-1279199

The switch is at 18 million in ONE YEAR and 9! MONTHS (closer to two years)

How is that "at the same pace" exactly?

First of all, I explained earlier in the thread that this 18 million figure is misleading because it only includes the top 3 markets (US, Japan, and Europe). We don't have an accurate sell-through figure, so the only fair comparison is sell-in/shipped. Second, that's after two holidays with PS4.

Comparison using shipped figures: http://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1057234966373916672

Though, with PS4 tracking ahead of PS2, I don't think that making PS4 the minimum bar for success makes sense in the first place. Even if the 18 million figure were global sales it would easily be over 25 million by the end of the year anyway. Nobody could call that a failure no matter how hard you try. (And yes, Smash and casual Pokemon will drive more sales than Odyssey did.)

Avatar image for Vatusus
#76 Edited by Vatusus (8947 posts) -

@techhog89 said:
@Vatusus said:
@techhog89 said:
@Vatusus said:

I never said it wouldnt outsold the Gamecube or the WiiU (wich isnt much of an achievement since they both were flops), I said the initial hype was being overblown out of proportion by sheep and the media alike. I quite remember several articles saying the Switch was on track of outselling the PS4 and the sheep posting these articles constantly on forums. It was overblown so yeah...

I was right

It's still tracking on-par with PS4 launch-aligned and is expected to have a better second full fiscal year than PS4 did.

Link?

edit: I did some digging on my own. PS4 sold 18.5 million in its first year on the market

http://www.techradar.com/news/gaming/consoles/sony-ps4-sales-reach-18-5-million-after-a-year-and-change-beating-ps2-1279199

The switch is at 18 million in ONE YEAR and 9! MONTHS (closer to two years)

How is that "at the same pace" exactly?

First of all, I explained earlier in the thread that this 18 million figure is misleading because it only includes the top 3 markets (US, Japan, and Europe). We don't have an accurate sell-through figure, so the only fair comparison is sell-in/shipped. Second, that's after two holidays with PS4.

Comparison using shipped figures: http://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1057234966373916672

Though, with PS4 tracking ahead of PS2, I don't think that making PS4 the minimum bar for success makes sense in the first place. Even if the 18 million figure were global sales it would easily be over 25 million by the end of the year anyway. Nobody could call that a failure no matter how hard you try. (And yes, Smash and casual Pokemon will drive more sales than Odyssey did.)

shipped =/= sold

Even if these numbers arent accurate all you have to offer are estimates so when you said they were on pace you were pulling bs from your a**. We know, however, that currently the PS4 is selling at a higher pace than the switch. The switch wont ever be able to catch up as much as sheep hoped it would be when it launched, sorry

Avatar image for vaidream45
#77 Posted by Vaidream45 (1439 posts) -

Everyone is gonna buy this come holiday time. First year is done and Nintendo proved that they are back. Families are gonna buy this up especially when suddenly you see pokemon bundles and smash bundles. Nintendo is doing just fine suddenly back in the number 2 spot behind Sony. Never thought I would see such a comeback after the Wii U flopped. I was calling for Nintendo to stop making hardware and just go software only......leave it to them to get me back into console gaming lol. Gaming life is funny.

Avatar image for xantufrog
#78 Edited by xantufrog (10093 posts) -

@Vatusus: I agree with him - the ps4 is a freight train. I'm not sure saying "it's selling less than ps4" is anything other than a dry factual statement. It certainly isn't indication of some kind of failure... That's like calling a Porsche slow because it can't keep up with a Ferrari.

Avatar image for techhog89
#79 Edited by Techhog89 (3093 posts) -
@Vatusus said:
@techhog89 said:
@Vatusus said:
@techhog89 said:

It's still tracking on-par with PS4 launch-aligned and is expected to have a better second full fiscal year than PS4 did.

Link?

edit: I did some digging on my own. PS4 sold 18.5 million in its first year on the market

http://www.techradar.com/news/gaming/consoles/sony-ps4-sales-reach-18-5-million-after-a-year-and-change-beating-ps2-1279199

The switch is at 18 million in ONE YEAR and 9! MONTHS (closer to two years)

How is that "at the same pace" exactly?

First of all, I explained earlier in the thread that this 18 million figure is misleading because it only includes the top 3 markets (US, Japan, and Europe). We don't have an accurate sell-through figure, so the only fair comparison is sell-in/shipped. Second, that's after two holidays with PS4.

Comparison using shipped figures: http://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1057234966373916672

Though, with PS4 tracking ahead of PS2, I don't think that making PS4 the minimum bar for success makes sense in the first place. Even if the 18 million figure were global sales it would easily be over 25 million by the end of the year anyway. Nobody could call that a failure no matter how hard you try. (And yes, Smash and casual Pokemon will drive more sales than Odyssey did.)

shipped =/= sold

Even if these numbers arent accurate all you have to offer are estimates so when you said they were on pace you were pulling bs from your a**. We know, however, that currently the PS4 is selling at a higher pace than the switch. The switch wont ever be able to catch up as much as sheep hoped it would be when it launched, sorry

Uh, what? Those shipment numbers aren't estimates. As for shipped vs sold, he's comparing shipped vs shipped and it's not like Nintendo can somehow force retailers to buy more units if they aren't selling. So, I'm not pulling anything from my ass. However, you are since we don't have a global sell-through number for Switch. I'm also saying nothing about Switch catching up to PS4; in fact, I'm saying that it's unreasonable to expect that but also trying to point out that saying that Switch is a flop for not matching PS4 is stupid.

Avatar image for Micropixel
#80 Posted by Micropixel (1375 posts) -

@sakaixx said:

Source: nintendo!

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/181031_2e.pdf

Welcome back Nintendoom threads. Nintendo still has not outsold Gamecube. Only 18m sold? heh

*I also totally stole this from Resetera thread so thanks to those guys. kindly delete if not allowed.

Total thread backfire.

OP didn't bother to read the entire PDF (or the chart for that matter) before posting.

This chart is for software attach rates. It says so at the top of the chart.

Avatar image for Vatusus
#81 Edited by Vatusus (8947 posts) -

@techhog89 said:
@Vatusus said:
@techhog89 said:
@Vatusus said:

Link?

edit: I did some digging on my own. PS4 sold 18.5 million in its first year on the market

http://www.techradar.com/news/gaming/consoles/sony-ps4-sales-reach-18-5-million-after-a-year-and-change-beating-ps2-1279199

The switch is at 18 million in ONE YEAR and 9! MONTHS (closer to two years)

How is that "at the same pace" exactly?

First of all, I explained earlier in the thread that this 18 million figure is misleading because it only includes the top 3 markets (US, Japan, and Europe). We don't have an accurate sell-through figure, so the only fair comparison is sell-in/shipped. Second, that's after two holidays with PS4.

Comparison using shipped figures: http://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1057234966373916672

Though, with PS4 tracking ahead of PS2, I don't think that making PS4 the minimum bar for success makes sense in the first place. Even if the 18 million figure were global sales it would easily be over 25 million by the end of the year anyway. Nobody could call that a failure no matter how hard you try. (And yes, Smash and casual Pokemon will drive more sales than Odyssey did.)

shipped =/= sold

Even if these numbers arent accurate all you have to offer are estimates so when you said they were on pace you were pulling bs from your a**. We know, however, that currently the PS4 is selling at a higher pace than the switch. The switch wont ever be able to catch up as much as sheep hoped it would be when it launched, sorry

Uh, what? Those shipment numbers aren't estimates. As for shipped vs sold, he's comparing shipped vs shipped and it's not like Nintendo can somehow force retailers to buy more units if they aren't selling. So, I'm not pulling anything from my ass. However, you are since we don't have a global sell-through number for Switch. I'm also saying nothing about Switch catching up to PS4; in fact, I'm saying that it's unreasonable to expect that but also trying to point out that saying that Switch is a flop for not matching PS4 is stupid.

Chuncks of unsold stock from shipped units can be returned if they dont sell. I work for a major company that buys huge sums of units of paper products at a time. If they dont sell, they're returned after some time. Thats how these businesses works. So no, shipped isnt nearly the same as "sold to consumers"

Avatar image for pmanden
#82 Posted by pmanden (270 posts) -

The Switch is not for everybody, I'd saý. It won't reach Wii numbers or Gameboy numbers. To become a real killer it had to be more mainstream with better hardware and more multiplat games.

Avatar image for techhog89
#83 Posted by Techhog89 (3093 posts) -
@Vatusus said:
@techhog89 said:
@Vatusus said:
@techhog89 said:
@Vatusus said:

Link?

edit: I did some digging on my own. PS4 sold 18.5 million in its first year on the market

http://www.techradar.com/news/gaming/consoles/sony-ps4-sales-reach-18-5-million-after-a-year-and-change-beating-ps2-1279199

The switch is at 18 million in ONE YEAR and 9! MONTHS (closer to two years)

How is that "at the same pace" exactly?

First of all, I explained earlier in the thread that this 18 million figure is misleading because it only includes the top 3 markets (US, Japan, and Europe). We don't have an accurate sell-through figure, so the only fair comparison is sell-in/shipped. Second, that's after two holidays with PS4.

Comparison using shipped figures: http://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1057234966373916672

Though, with PS4 tracking ahead of PS2, I don't think that making PS4 the minimum bar for success makes sense in the first place. Even if the 18 million figure were global sales it would easily be over 25 million by the end of the year anyway. Nobody could call that a failure no matter how hard you try. (And yes, Smash and casual Pokemon will drive more sales than Odyssey did.)

shipped =/= sold

Even if these numbers arent accurate all you have to offer are estimates so when you said they were on pace you were pulling bs from your a**. We know, however, that currently the PS4 is selling at a higher pace than the switch. The switch wont ever be able to catch up as much as sheep hoped it would be when it launched, sorry

Uh, what? Those shipment numbers aren't estimates. As for shipped vs sold, he's comparing shipped vs shipped and it's not like Nintendo can somehow force retailers to buy more units if they aren't selling. So, I'm not pulling anything from my ass. However, you are since we don't have a global sell-through number for Switch. I'm also saying nothing about Switch catching up to PS4; in fact, I'm saying that it's unreasonable to expect that but also trying to point out that saying that Switch is a flop for not matching PS4 is stupid.

Chuncks of unsold stock from shipped units can be returned if they dont sell. I work for a major company that buys huge sums of units of paper products at a time. If they dont sell, they're returned after some time. Thats how these businesses works. So no, shipped isnt nearly the same as "sold to consumers"

Yes, and that even happened with Wii U. However, if sales are super slow then shipments will slow down. They won't just keep buying at the same rate if it looks like Switch is starting to flop as you imply, and even if they were then those same retailers would likely buy more PS4s if that is selling dramatically better. If the shipments are about on-par, it's a safe bet that the sales are too unless either it's right after launch or sales took a sudden nosedive and there hasn't been time to send the excess stock back. That said, I'm not saying that they're the exact same thing either.

If believing that Switch is a flop is what lets you sleep at night though, go right ahead. Just don't say I didn't warn you next time Nintendo gives a sell-through figure and it's closer to PS4 than you thought.

Avatar image for Vatusus
#84 Posted by Vatusus (8947 posts) -

@techhog89 said:
@Vatusus said:
@techhog89 said:
@Vatusus said:
@techhog89 said:

First of all, I explained earlier in the thread that this 18 million figure is misleading because it only includes the top 3 markets (US, Japan, and Europe). We don't have an accurate sell-through figure, so the only fair comparison is sell-in/shipped. Second, that's after two holidays with PS4.

Comparison using shipped figures: http://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1057234966373916672

Though, with PS4 tracking ahead of PS2, I don't think that making PS4 the minimum bar for success makes sense in the first place. Even if the 18 million figure were global sales it would easily be over 25 million by the end of the year anyway. Nobody could call that a failure no matter how hard you try. (And yes, Smash and casual Pokemon will drive more sales than Odyssey did.)

shipped =/= sold

Even if these numbers arent accurate all you have to offer are estimates so when you said they were on pace you were pulling bs from your a**. We know, however, that currently the PS4 is selling at a higher pace than the switch. The switch wont ever be able to catch up as much as sheep hoped it would be when it launched, sorry

Uh, what? Those shipment numbers aren't estimates. As for shipped vs sold, he's comparing shipped vs shipped and it's not like Nintendo can somehow force retailers to buy more units if they aren't selling. So, I'm not pulling anything from my ass. However, you are since we don't have a global sell-through number for Switch. I'm also saying nothing about Switch catching up to PS4; in fact, I'm saying that it's unreasonable to expect that but also trying to point out that saying that Switch is a flop for not matching PS4 is stupid.

Chuncks of unsold stock from shipped units can be returned if they dont sell. I work for a major company that buys huge sums of units of paper products at a time. If they dont sell, they're returned after some time. Thats how these businesses works. So no, shipped isnt nearly the same as "sold to consumers"

Yes, and that even happened with Wii U. However, if sales are super slow then shipments will slow down. They won't just keep buying at the same rate if it looks like Switch is starting to flop as you imply, and even if they were then those same retailers would likely buy more PS4s if that is selling dramatically better. If the shipments are about on-par, it's a safe bet that the sales are too unless either it's right after launch or sales took a sudden nosedive and there hasn't been time to send the excess stock back. That said, I'm not saying that they're the exact same thing either.

If believing that Switch is a flop is what lets you sleep at night though, go right ahead. Just don't say I didn't warn you next time Nintendo gives a sell-through figure and it's closer to PS4 than you thought.

Wut? Where did I even said the Switch is flopping? Saying that the switch's hype at launch was overblown isnt nearly the same as saying its flopping, ya kno?

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#85 Posted by Techhog89 (3093 posts) -

@Vatusus: Maybe not flopping, but you're still implying that it's falling to a bad place in sales and ultimately won't perform very well, and you're doing so based on incomplete numbers and a second year that everyone is complaining about in terms of software.

If it doesn't break 45 million sold (I would say 50 million shipped, but you actually are silly enough to think that a company can ship as many of a product as they want regardless of sales and also don't seem to realize that units returned to the company are counted as negative shipments) by the end of March 2020, I'll agree with you. Right now, while it's no longer breaking records, it appears to be much more competitive with PS4 than you'd ever expect the successor to the Wii U to be.

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#86 Edited by Vatusus (8947 posts) -

@techhog89 said:

@Vatusus: Maybe not flopping, but you're still implying that it's falling to a bad place in sales

no, I'm not. Read my posts again and point out where that is being implied

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#87 Posted by emgesp (7620 posts) -

@techhog89 So is the Switch doing better/worse than expected?

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#88 Posted by Techhog89 (3093 posts) -
@emgesp said:

@techhog89 So is the Switch doing better/worse than expected?

As I explained, the 18 million is misleading since it's only for the top 3 markets and actual global sell-through should be a bit higher. Beyond that, hardware is a little worse than I would have thought in terms of shipments but still very good, software is doing dramatically better than I could have ever imagined (they'll ship way more than their 100 million estimate for the fiscal year at this rate, possibly close to 130 million), and your 45 million ceiling is as ridiculous as ever and will be blown past less than 18 months from now.

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#89 Edited by sakaiXx (4201 posts) -

@Vatusus said:
@techhog89 said:
@Vatusus said:
@techhog89 said:

Uh, what? Those shipment numbers aren't estimates. As for shipped vs sold, he's comparing shipped vs shipped and it's not like Nintendo can somehow force retailers to buy more units if they aren't selling. So, I'm not pulling anything from my ass. However, you are since we don't have a global sell-through number for Switch. I'm also saying nothing about Switch catching up to PS4; in fact, I'm saying that it's unreasonable to expect that but also trying to point out that saying that Switch is a flop for not matching PS4 is stupid.

Chuncks of unsold stock from shipped units can be returned if they dont sell. I work for a major company that buys huge sums of units of paper products at a time. If they dont sell, they're returned after some time. Thats how these businesses works. So no, shipped isnt nearly the same as "sold to consumers"

Yes, and that even happened with Wii U. However, if sales are super slow then shipments will slow down. They won't just keep buying at the same rate if it looks like Switch is starting to flop as you imply, and even if they were then those same retailers would likely buy more PS4s if that is selling dramatically better. If the shipments are about on-par, it's a safe bet that the sales are too unless either it's right after launch or sales took a sudden nosedive and there hasn't been time to send the excess stock back. That said, I'm not saying that they're the exact same thing either.

If believing that Switch is a flop is what lets you sleep at night though, go right ahead. Just don't say I didn't warn you next time Nintendo gives a sell-through figure and it's closer to PS4 than you thought.

Wut? Where did I even said the Switch is flopping? Saying that the switch's hype at launch was overblown isnt nearly the same as saying its flopping, ya kno?

Just for additional info. Both wii and Ds only manages to move around 12m around the holiday season... Those 2 consoles are juggernaught in sales for first few years. Even sony ps4 only manages 10m on its best holiday season. I doubt switch could manages that, after only shipping a total 5m this year and with many units unsold in stores. Its probably not flopping but its nowhere near as good as people make switch like

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#90 Posted by neatfeatguy (4219 posts) -
@sakaixx said:

Nintendo still has not outsold Gamecube. Only 18m sold? heh

Your comment kind of reminds me of a day I purchased a PowerBall ticket. I don't follow the jackpot amount. Just a couple times a year I drop $2 (used to be $1 in the good old days) on a ticket.

I went into my local gas station, picked something up and purchased a PowerBall ticket. The lady behind the counter says, "Are you sure you want to buy one? The big jackpot was won last night and it's now only worth 20 million dollars."

I looked at her like she was fucking stupid and said, "Only 20 million? Are you that greedy? You better check your priorities if you don't think that's enough." I took my items and left.

18 million is a lot. Is it enough for Nintendo to continue to sink their time/money into or for them to look into something new? Only they can answer that. I haven't been a Nintendo fan since I had a SNES. N64 was okay, but never good enough for me to purchase it, I enjoyed gaming on other platforms such as PC and PS1.

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#91 Posted by Kali-B1rd (1518 posts) -
@neatfeatguy said:
@sakaixx said:

Nintendo still has not outsold Gamecube. Only 18m sold? heh

Your comment kind of reminds me of a day I purchased a PowerBall ticket. I don't follow the jackpot amount. Just a couple times a year I drop $2 (used to be $1 in the good old days) on a ticket.

I went into my local gas station, picked something up and purchased a PowerBall ticket. The lady behind the counter says, "Are you sure you want to buy one? The big jackpot was won last night and it's now only worth 20 million dollars."

I looked at her like she was fucking stupid and said, "Only 20 million? Are you that greedy? You better check your priorities if you don't think that's enough." I took my items and left.

18 million is a lot. Is it enough for Nintendo to continue to sink their time/money into or for them to look into something new? Only they can answer that. I haven't been a Nintendo fan since I had a SNES. N64 was okay, but never good enough for me to purchase it, I enjoyed gaming on other platforms such as PC and PS1.

We also need to remind people that the 3DS was slow until its first price drop.

Switch hasn't even had one yet... and still has pleanty of heavy hitters left in its lifespan.

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#92 Posted by FireEmblem_Man (18709 posts) -
@kali-b1rd said:
@neatfeatguy said:
@sakaixx said:

Nintendo still has not outsold Gamecube. Only 18m sold? heh

Your comment kind of reminds me of a day I purchased a PowerBall ticket. I don't follow the jackpot amount. Just a couple times a year I drop $2 (used to be $1 in the good old days) on a ticket.

I went into my local gas station, picked something up and purchased a PowerBall ticket. The lady behind the counter says, "Are you sure you want to buy one? The big jackpot was won last night and it's now only worth 20 million dollars."

I looked at her like she was fucking stupid and said, "Only 20 million? Are you that greedy? You better check your priorities if you don't think that's enough." I took my items and left.

18 million is a lot. Is it enough for Nintendo to continue to sink their time/money into or for them to look into something new? Only they can answer that. I haven't been a Nintendo fan since I had a SNES. N64 was okay, but never good enough for me to purchase it, I enjoyed gaming on other platforms such as PC and PS1.

We also need to remind people that the 3DS was slow until its first price drop.

Switch hasn't even had one yet... and still has pleanty of heavy hitters left in its lifespan.

So far, it has been a slow 2nd year so far. I agree, 3DS still able to go above 70 million. I'm looking for PS4 2nd Year Sales to compare them to the Switch now. So far, Switch has outsold PS4's 1st year sales.

IGN First Year Sales comparison

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#93 Posted by emgesp (7620 posts) -
@techhog89 said:
@emgesp said:

@techhog89 So is the Switch doing better/worse than expected?

As I explained, the 18 million is misleading since it's only for the top 3 markets and actual global sell-through should be a bit higher. Beyond that, hardware is a little worse than I would have thought in terms of shipments but still very good, software is doing dramatically better than I could have ever imagined (they'll ship way more than their 100 million estimate for the fiscal year at this rate, possibly close to 130 million), and your 45 million ceiling is as ridiculous as ever and will be blown past less than 18 months from now.

Doubt it.

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#94 Edited by Techhog89 (3093 posts) -

@emgesp: It will, and your excuse will be, "how was I supposed to predict that it would get a revision and a price cut?!"

If you're sticking to your guns still, you're a complete and utter fool.

Nintendo will announce sales at 25 million or even 30 million by the end of the year. You can quote me on that.

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#95 Posted by emgesp (7620 posts) -
@techhog89 said:

@emgesp: It will, and your excuse will be, "how was I supposed to predict that it would get a revision and a price cut?!"

If you're sticking to your guns still, you're a complete and utter fool.

Nintendo will announce sales at 25 million or even 30 million by the end of the year. You can quote me on that.


Switch will not exceed 45 million units sold in less than 18 months. You'd be a fool to believe that.

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#96 Edited by Techhog89 (3093 posts) -
@emgesp said:
@techhog89 said:

@emgesp: It will, and your excuse will be, "how was I supposed to predict that it would get a revision and a price cut?!"

If you're sticking to your guns still, you're a complete and utter fool.

Nintendo will announce sales at 25 million or even 30 million by the end of the year. You can quote me on that.

Switch will not exceed 45 million units sold in less than 18 months. You'd be a fool to believe that.

I'll quote you on this, and you can quote me on that. Trust me, it's not even a high bar at this point considering everything happening next year. Really, it should be at around 55 million shipped by April 2020, which would mean over 50 million sold to customers in all likelihood. 45 million is a conservative estimate in case Smash, the revision, Animal Crossing, and Pokemon Gen 8 somehow underperform and Nintendo refuses to cut the price. Why don't you give your own estimate btw?

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#97 Edited by Vatusus (8947 posts) -

@FireEmblem_Man said:
@kali-b1rd said:
@neatfeatguy said:
@sakaixx said:

Nintendo still has not outsold Gamecube. Only 18m sold? heh

Your comment kind of reminds me of a day I purchased a PowerBall ticket. I don't follow the jackpot amount. Just a couple times a year I drop $2 (used to be $1 in the good old days) on a ticket.

I went into my local gas station, picked something up and purchased a PowerBall ticket. The lady behind the counter says, "Are you sure you want to buy one? The big jackpot was won last night and it's now only worth 20 million dollars."

I looked at her like she was fucking stupid and said, "Only 20 million? Are you that greedy? You better check your priorities if you don't think that's enough." I took my items and left.

18 million is a lot. Is it enough for Nintendo to continue to sink their time/money into or for them to look into something new? Only they can answer that. I haven't been a Nintendo fan since I had a SNES. N64 was okay, but never good enough for me to purchase it, I enjoyed gaming on other platforms such as PC and PS1.

We also need to remind people that the 3DS was slow until its first price drop.

Switch hasn't even had one yet... and still has pleanty of heavy hitters left in its lifespan.

So far, it has been a slow 2nd year so far. I agree, 3DS still able to go above 70 million. I'm looking for PS4 2nd Year Sales to compare them to the Switch now. So far, Switch has outsold PS4's 1st year sales.

IGN First Year Sales comparison

$399 price tag with barely any worthwhile exclusives vs $299 price tag with two major IP exclusives... not really fair to compare. Also the PS4 was competing against Xbox1 at the same time (while xbox fans still had high hopes for the console) while the switch had no direct competitors at launch.

The big difference is that PS4 had legs with the release of worthwhile exclusives AND multiplat games for the subsequent years. We'll see if the Switch will have legs for its future, wich I doubt having in mind its 3rd party AAA support is and will be poor and its two major IPs were already released and it'll be a while for their next entries to receive sequels.

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#98 Posted by Rockman999 (7296 posts) -

lol those are like Xbox One numbers. Lemmings gotta pick things up before those Amiibo nerds overtake them too. LOL

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#99 Edited by Techhog89 (3093 posts) -
@Rockman999 said:

lol those are like Xbox One numbers. Lemmings gotta pick things up before those Amiibo nerds overtake them too. LOL

Aside from the number not being global, it's much higher than Xbox One launch-aligned if it's true that Xbox One isn't even at 40 million yet.

EDIT: This says 18 million for Switch in Japan + US + Europe after 19 months with one holiday season. Xbox One was at 18-19 million globally after 25 months on sale and two full holiday seasons not counting launch. They aren't even close.

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#100 Posted by SUD123456 (5198 posts) -

The only numbers that matter are the ones published as part of earnings reports. The only time that a distinction between shipped and sell through matters is at the beginning of the lifecycle. Once production and sales are smoothed out and in-sync then the distinction is irrelevant as everything on the shelves is eventually sold.

The facts are that the Switch sold slightly more last quarter than the same quarter from a year ago. And if it does approx. the same volume this quarter vs the same time period last year then it will hit 30M units by Dec 31st.

Other facts are the 3.29M units Switch sold last quarter are less than the 3.9M PS4s sold last quarter but they are essentially the exact same as PS4 sold in the equivalent quarter in 2014 which was 3.3M (Launch aligned quarters)

PS4 sales this quarter are slightly down from the same period last year which was 4.2M

The main points are both sold well up to this point in their lifecycle. We know that PS4 sales continued to grow at a greater rate beyond Switch current rate. Therefore, Switch sales would need to grow at a greater rate than current to keep pace on a launched aligned basis.